COVID Recovery Monitor

While new COVID-19 infections have dropped, our Mobility Trackers have shown only a slight pick-up in activity as tight restrictions remain in place in many economies. Vaccine rollouts have been slow in the euro-zone and most EMs, but much faster in the US, UK, Israel, and UAE. Israel’s experience suggests that governments may lift restrictions quite quickly once a high level of vaccine coverage has been reached.
Kieran Tompkins Assistant Economist
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More from Global Economics

Global Economics Update

What an Evergrande collapse would mean for the world

We think that the ‘China’s Lehman moment’ narrative is wide of the mark. On its own, a managed default or even messy collapse of Evergrande would have little global impact beyond some market turbulence. Even if it were the first of many property developers to go bust in China, we suspect it would take a policy misstep for this to cause a sharp slowdown in its economy. In a hard-landing scenario, several emerging markets are vulnerable. But in general, the global impact of swings in Chinese demand is often overstated.

16 September 2021

Global Economics Update

Sky-high shipping costs pose upside risk to inflation

Our inflation forecasts already incorporate some passthrough of pipeline pressures including higher shipping costs to consumer prices. But given that maritime shipping costs have never surged anywhere near as much as they have done during the past year, the full extent of the passthrough is difficult to predict. Our sense is that inflation risks staying higher for longer than we and others anticipate in the coming year.

14 September 2021

Global Economics Update

The effects of supply shortages

Supply shortages may continue to limit growth and put upward pressure on prices for several months to come before a new wave of COVID infections is brought under control, economies reopen, and spending patterns normalise. Shortages have related to both goods and labour, but in this Update we will focus on goods, answering six key questions about the shortages and their potential implications.

9 September 2021

More from Kieran Tompkins

UK Economics Focus

Most labour shortages will probably be temporary

The widely reported labour shortages should mostly prove temporary. While it may take 6-12 months before some of the underlying causes unwind, recruitment difficulties probably won’t have a long-lasting upward impact on wage growth. As such, they shouldn’t persistently lift CPI inflation.

8 July 2021

UK Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jun.)

The fall in the flash composite PMI from a record high of 62.9 in May to 61.7 in June indicates that the pace of the recovery may have peaked. That suggests the monthly rises in GDP will ease back from the 2.3% m/m gain recorded in April. Nonetheless, the level of GDP will continue to climb towards and beyond pre-pandemic levels.

23 June 2021

UK Data Response

IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (May)

Another rise in the flash composite PMI from 60.7 in April to a record high of 62.0 in May points to the economic recovery shifting through the gears and picking up speed. That suggests the pace of the rises in GDP should accelerate further from the 2.1% m/m rise in March.

21 May 2021
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