Euro-zone Retail Sales (July) & Final PMIs (Aug)

The recovery in euro-zone retail sales ended in July as sales fell sharply compared to June. However this does not affect our view that consumption will grow strongly in Q3, not least because we think the fall in retail sales partly reflects consumers shifting their spending from goods to services.
Michael Tran Assistant Economist
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European Economics Update

Revising down our Q4 growth forecast

Tighter Covid restrictions and increased consumer caution appear to be causing euro-zone activity to decline. We have revised our euro-zone Q4 GDP growth forecast down to 0.2% q/q and the risks are still to the downside. Although there is still a lot of uncertainty, Q1 looks set to be weak too.

8 December 2021

European Economics Update

Dutch economy to grow strongly after restrictions end

The tightening of Covid restrictions in the Netherlands in response to the resurgence of the virus there in recent weeks will put a temporary brake on GDP growth in Q4. But we think that the underlying strength of domestic demand and an increase in net trade will allow a swift recovery once the pandemic restrictions are lifted again.

8 December 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3)

Data released today show that the euro-zone economy recovered to within 0.5% of its pre-pandemic level in Q3. But with Covid cases rising, governments tightening restrictions, and supply problems constraining output, the economy looks set for a very weak fourth quarter.

7 December 2021

More from Michael Tran

European Economics Update

Expanded vaccine coverage to keep Delta in check

The recent fall in aggregate new daily Covid cases in the euro-zone, largely due to the success of the vaccination programme, means that governments in the region should be able to avoid re-imposing significant new restrictions in the coming months.

2 September 2021

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The slight pick-up in Swedish headline inflation in July was primarily driven by a rise in energy inflation. However, the fall in core inflation to its lowest level since 2014, means that the Riksbank will be in no hurry to raise interest rates.

13 August 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone Flash HICP (July)

Euro-zone inflation resumed its upward trend in July and we expect it to rise further in the remainder of the year. But this is largely due to temporary factors, which should fade in 2022.

30 July 2021
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