EM GDP growth weakened over the second half of 2023, and we expect growth to remain subdued this year. Some EMs that underperformed last year will see modest recoveries, but many of the economies where growth was surprisingly strong last year will slow by more than most expect. EM inflation will continue to fall, albeit at a slower pace than last year. Central banks in much of Asia will join the EM easing cycle and cut rates by more than most are currently expecting. But strong inflation pressures mean rates may not be cut as far as is widely expected elsewhere.
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