We expect GDP growth across Emerging Europe to slow by more than most expect over 2019-20 and monetary policy is set to be tightened further than is priced into markets. The important exception to this regional story is Russia, whose recovery over the coming quarters is likely to surprise on the upside and to be accompanied by further interest rate cuts. Even so, we expect GDP growth in the region as a whole to weaken from 3.0% this year to 2.5% in 2019 and 2.3% in 2020.
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