The Czech economy has had the weakest performance of any EU country since the pandemic, and we think that growth will disappoint expectations again in 2024. This will keep inflation contained and put pressure on the central bank to loosen monetary policy aggressively. We are revising down our already below consensus interest rate forecast a little further: we now think that the policy rate will be cut from 6.25% to 3.50% by the end of 2024 (consensus 4.00-4.25%).
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