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Trade tensions likely to continue to weigh on prices

There were further falls in most commodity prices this week as concerns about the negative impact on demand of heightened protectionism dampened investor sentiment. With Donald Trump threatening that tariffs could be imposed on $500bn of US imports (virtually all) from China on Friday, prices are unlikely to rebound anytime soon. Next week is fairly quiet on the data front, except for the first estimate of US second-quarter GDP on Friday. The consensus is for a strong number so the price of oil could fall back on weaker-than-expected figures. Elsewhere, Trump is set to meet EU officials in Washington for trade talks on Wednesday. Commodity prices could rally if there are signs of compromise on either side, but Trump has been vocal in his criticism of the EU ahead of the meeting.

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