Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to 2018 Looser fiscal policy is likely to support an acceleration in economic growth next year but it will fizzle out again in 2018 leaving ample amounts of spare capacity and little in the way of... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Which industries suffer most from the stronger yen? While the yen has weakened slightly over the past week as concerns about the impact of Brexit have faded, it is still around 20% stronger than it was at the start of the year. A stronger currency... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen unlikely to hold on to post-Brexit-vote strength The UK’s vote to leave the EU has pushed the yen to levels last seen when Quantitative and Qualitative Easing was first launched, while the Nikkei has slumped by 8%. These moves increase the chances... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will banks’ falling profits undermine lending? Commercial bank profits have started to moderate following the launch of negative interest rates as banks have cut lending rates. However, we are not convinced that further cuts in lending rates will... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Upper House elections unlikely to revive Abenomics The upcoming Upper House elections should solidify the government’s position even if the LDP/New Komeito coalition fails to achieve the hoped for two-thirds majority. However, hopes that a strong... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More workers but less work While the number of people in paid employment in Japan is now the highest since 2008, hours worked have fallen to fresh lows as full-time workers have been replaced by part-time workers. With little... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How will the sales tax decision affect the outlook? A decision on whether to go ahead with the sales tax hike scheduled for next April will be announced in coming weeks. If the tax rise is postponed, GDP growth next year would be considerably stronger... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How long can pensioners keep spending? Population ageing has weighed on the average employee’s disposable income as social security contributions have risen by nearly 50% over the past fifteen years, and will continue rising in future... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the BoJ really running out of assets to buy? We don’t share concerns that the Bank of Japan will soon run into trouble acquiring the ¥80 trillion worth of Japanese Government Bonds it has pledged to buy every year. Admittedly, insurance... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would a tax on firms’ cash revive investment? The proposed tax on corporate cash holdings may shift firms’ behaviour somewhat but is not as groundbreaking as it sounds. The government already provides tax incentives to encourage investment... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Spare capacity to widen further We now expect Japan’s economy to expand by only 0.5% this year – and that is on the assumption that the government presses ahead with next year’s sales tax hike. If it does, households will bring some... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the stronger yen actually a boon for Japan? The recent strengthening of the yen will lower prices of imported goods and provide some support to flagging private consumption. However, lower import prices provide a further headwind to the Bank of... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will inflation ever reach 2%? If the government presses ahead with the sales tax hike next year, the chances of hitting 2% inflation on a sustainable basis anytime soon are very slim. Even if the tax hike is postponed, our best... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen-strength raises chances of more monetary easing The government has tried to talk down the yen down over last week as the currency has climbed to fresh highs against the dollar. While we still consider intervention in the currency markets unlikely... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Structural factors holding back wage growth Low inflation and the continued expansion in part-time employment are one reason why wage growth is not picking up. However, there are also some structural factors at play. Japan’s lifetime employment... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Resilience of bank profits is bad news for BoJ The conventional wisdom is that the collapse in bond yields since the launch of QQE is undermining bank profits. In reality, though they reached a fresh high last year. Unfortunately this is bad news... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
