Japan Economics Weekly Will the stronger yen speed up offshoring? While the recent strengthening of the yen has rendered outward investment cheaper for Japanese firms, we doubt that it will lift investment outflows much as the growth outlook elsewhere remains rather... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan still haunted by the undead? Japan’s economy remains dominated by old, unproductive firms, while those hoping to create new firms face a range of hurdles. Meanwhile, the country remains relatively isolated from the rest of the... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will underlying inflation turn negative? Our base case is that the recent strengthening of the yen will result in a further moderation in inflation excluding fresh food and energy towards zero. However, the magnitude of recent exchange rate... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen to drag on exports The sharp weakening of the yen in the early stages of Abenomics helped to shield Japanese exporters from the slowdown in global demand. However, the renewed strengthening of the exchange rate since... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Assessing Japan's fiscal stance Only a fraction of the ¥28 trillion fiscal stimulus passed by the Cabinet on Tuesday constitutes fresh public spending. What’s more, budgeted spending has been a poor guide to actual changes in public... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is municipal debt the next frontier for QQE One widely-held view is that the Bank of Japan has refrained from stepping up its purchases of Japanese Government Bonds in recent months because the pool of available securities is drying up quickly... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan, Baron Munchausen and the debt swamp Baron Munchausen managed to escape a swamp by pulling on his own hair. In a similar vein, some commentators have recently argued that Japan could pull itself out of its debt morass by using carefully... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is “Helicopter Ben” heralding more easing? Following a landslide victory in the Upper House elections, Prime Minister Abe has confirmed that the government will prepare a large supplementary budget later this year. All else equal, this should... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to 2018 Looser fiscal policy is likely to support an acceleration in economic growth next year but it will fizzle out again in 2018 leaving ample amounts of spare capacity and little in the way of... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Which industries suffer most from the stronger yen? While the yen has weakened slightly over the past week as concerns about the impact of Brexit have faded, it is still around 20% stronger than it was at the start of the year. A stronger currency... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen unlikely to hold on to post-Brexit-vote strength The UK’s vote to leave the EU has pushed the yen to levels last seen when Quantitative and Qualitative Easing was first launched, while the Nikkei has slumped by 8%. These moves increase the chances... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will banks’ falling profits undermine lending? Commercial bank profits have started to moderate following the launch of negative interest rates as banks have cut lending rates. However, we are not convinced that further cuts in lending rates will... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Upper House elections unlikely to revive Abenomics The upcoming Upper House elections should solidify the government’s position even if the LDP/New Komeito coalition fails to achieve the hoped for two-thirds majority. However, hopes that a strong... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More workers but less work While the number of people in paid employment in Japan is now the highest since 2008, hours worked have fallen to fresh lows as full-time workers have been replaced by part-time workers. With little... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How will the sales tax decision affect the outlook? A decision on whether to go ahead with the sales tax hike scheduled for next April will be announced in coming weeks. If the tax rise is postponed, GDP growth next year would be considerably stronger... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How long can pensioners keep spending? Population ageing has weighed on the average employee’s disposable income as social security contributions have risen by nearly 50% over the past fifteen years, and will continue rising in future... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
