Japan Economics Weekly Outlook for consumer spending remains good A slowdown in labour income forced households to reduce their savings in recent months. However, households have also become more upbeat about their personal finances. And with income growth likely to... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy on track for prolonged expansion Japan’s economy probably achieved a sixth consecutive quarter of growth in Q2 and early signs are that the run has continued into Q3. If so this would be the longest expansion since the turn of the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Could Abenomics survive the departure of PM Abe? Abenomics appeared to run out of momentum well before a recent slump in Prime Minister Abe’s popularity put his political future in doubt. In particular, his departure would matter little for... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The fiscal stimulus that wasn’t A year has passed since Japan’s government announced a huge fiscal stimulus. We argued at the time that the announcement would be followed by only a negligible increase in public spending. In fact... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Pick-up in inward FDI has further to run Japan is less welcoming to foreign direct investment than many other rich economies. But cuts to corporate tax rates, the prospect of additional free trade agreements and high profitability are making... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ unlikely to tighten even if sales tax hike is delayed We now expect the government to delay the sales tax hike currently scheduled for October 2019 beyond 2020. While this would remove one obstacle to policy tightening by the Bank of Japan, the bigger... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is public sector debt sustainable? The ratio of public debt to GDP in Japan is more likely to rise than fall over the coming decade. But the situation is not as precarious as it may seem, given the government’s large holdings of... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has the structural unemployment rate fallen? Better education, an ageing workforce and easier job searching via the internet have reduced Japan’s structural jobless rate and kept a lid on wage growth in recent years. Even so, employers report... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Part-time earnings point to mounting wage pressure Recent gains in the hourly wages of part-time workers are an early indication that the tight labour market is finally creating some upward pressure on wages. That would be a welcome development for... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the BoJ continue to scale back its JGB purchases? The Bank of Japan’s JGB purchases of ¥4.3 trillion in May were the lowest since it stepped up purchases in October 2014. If overseas yields rebound in coming months as we expect, we will probably see... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumer spending to continue powering ahead Growth in labour income slowed sharply in Q1 but a rebound seems likely. Even if income growth remains sluggish, households have plenty of scope to reduce savings following a prolonged period of... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tailwind from net exports about to slow Strong growth in Japan’s main export markets has provided a fillip to export volumes in recent quarters. However, foreign demand growth is likely to fade in coming months and the unusual recent... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Boost from female employment starting to fade A surge in the share of women in or looking for paid employment has boosted potential growth and kept price pressures subdued in recent years. But with the female labour force participation rate no... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Government could do more to lift wage growth The government has raised minimum wages, mainly to the benefit of part-time workers, and improved tax incentives to encourage firms to lift salaries. But much more is needed to boost wage growth to... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation set to rebound, but not enough for BoJ Underlying price pressures in Japan are not quite as weak as the recent negative reading for core inflation might suggest: it was caused by a slump in mobile phone prices that won’t continue. But... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong credit growth not benefitting economy Private sector debt is growing at the fastest pace in at least two decades, but this boom in credit is not doing much to support demand in the economy. The upshot is that economic activity should hold... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
