Growth probably slowed in Q3

This week’s activity data for July were rather weak. The 0.1% m/m rise in retail sales values wasn’t too bad given that sales had jumped by 1.4% m/m in June. But consumer goods prices rose by 0.7% m/m in July so sales volumes fell. If sales volumes remain unchanged in August and September, they would fall by 0.4% q/q in Q3. As such, the chances of repeating Q2’s 0.8% q/q bounce in private consumption are slim.