Japan Economics Weekly Limited boost to corporate profits from cheaper oil Corporate profits have not risen much in response to lower prices of energy and other raw materials, as the gains have been highly concentrated in a few sectors. Looking ahead, the recent appreciation... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Are Japan’s GDP data getting worse? Japan’s GDP figures are subject to larger revisions over time than those of any other G7 economy. The pronounced swings in Japan’s economy in recent years provide a partial explanation. But continued... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How will the Bank of Japan react to cheaper oil? The Bank of Japan will probably lower its inflation forecasts and push back the timing for reaching its 2% target yet again later this month. With cheaper energy keeping a lid on inflation, the recent... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect in 2016 Economic activity is set to strengthen next year as consumers bring forward spending ahead of the sales tax hike scheduled for April 2017. However, demand will surely slump once the tax has been... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Government eyes nursing to revive growth One of the government’s latest measures to promote growth is a proposal to increase the number of nursing home beds so that fewer workers quit their jobs to take care of family members. The plan could... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Corporate tax cuts unlikely to revive capital spending Firms have responded to the sharp fall in corporate tax rates since Mr Abe returned to power by stepping up investment abroad rather than at home. With bleak demand prospects as a result of poor... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will minimum wage hikes boost consumption? Prime Minister Abe has expressed his desire to lift the minimum wage by 3% per year to boost earnings and consumer spending. However, we estimate that aggregate labour income would rise by less than 0... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Abenomics has not altered Japan’s long-term outlook Output may have contracted again last quarter, but Japan’s growth has actually been fairly healthy by past standards since Mr Abe returned to power, despite stronger demographic headwinds. But the... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Slowdown bolsters case for delay in sales tax hike The government has set itself a stringent target for eliminating the budget deficit and currently intends to raise the sales tax again in 2017 to help it achieve that end. The economic weakness that... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to make of the privatisation of the Post Bank? The government took the first step towards the privatisation of the Post Bank by selling a 11% stake on Wednesday. Private ownership will force the Bank to shift its investment portfolio from low... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen still set to fall further as monetary policies diverge Japan’s economy probably shrank yet again last quarter, resulting in a renewed increase in spare capacity. With the outlook for growth and inflation both worse than policymakers predict, we continue... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Exemptions won’t dampen blow from sales tax hike The government intends to mitigate the impact of the sales tax hike scheduled for April 2017 by lowering the tax rate on food and other daily necessities. However, the benefits even for low-income... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Capital spending to remain sluggish A range of indicators suggest that business investment dropped for the second straight quarter in Q3. However, the Bank of Japan is continuing to argue that the outlook for capital expenditure is... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Lower price expectations add to case for more easing Expectations of future price rises among Japanese households and firms have been undermined by the energy-related collapse in observed inflation. Even though the drag from cheaper energy will fade in... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would negative interest rates hamper QQE? We do not share BoJ Board member Shirai’s view that the introduction of negative rates would hamper the ability of the Bank to purchase JGBs. However, Ms Shirai’s views have been close to those of the... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Clampdown on tertiary education is worrisome An onslaught on humanities and social sciences by the Ministry of Education threatens to undermine the competitiveness of Japan’s economy. Encouragingly, the country’s leading universities have... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
