Japan Economics Weekly Can educated women save Japan? Efforts to bring more women into Japan’s labour market have enjoyed success in recent years.However, it remains the case that relatively few educated women are in paid work. We estimatethat lifting... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ pinning hopes on strong Shunto wage deal A strong rise in base pay in the spring wage negotiations (Shunto) would help convince the Bank of Japan that the current weakness in inflation will prove temporary. A tight labour market and strong... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited demand boost from cheaper oil The plunge in crude oil prices since last summer will reduce the cost of Japan’s energy imports by around 2.5% of GDP in the near term. However, much of the windfall will be saved and the boost to... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Fading fiscal headwind to bolster demand Despite surging tax revenues, we doubt that the government will reach its target of halving the primary deficit in the coming fiscal year. However, fading fiscal drag should at least ensure that the... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much lower will unemployment get? The unemployment rate has fallen below the level consistent with stable price pressure in recent months. It is unlikely to fall much further, as the pool of attractive job candidates is drying up... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What should we expect in 2015? Wage growth is set to remain sluggish next year and, with households also likely to be trying to rebuild their savings, we expect consumer spending to be subdued. In turn, this suggests that GDP... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Lower energy prices likely to rattle policymakers In terms of the boost to corporate and household spending power, Japan should be among the big winners from the fall in global energy prices. However, for policymakers, the resulting drag on inflation... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly “Pricing to market” not the whole story Japanese exporters commonly “price to market”, meaning they don’t allow the impact of exchange rate shifts to feed through fully into the prices paid by their foreign customers. This has become an... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has Abenomics failed? To some, the continued fall in output last quarter is proof that Abenomics has failed. However, the economy has actually done fairly well over the past two years considering the strong demographic... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Delay in sales tax hike no reason to cheer The question of whether to go ahead with next year’s sales tax hike will remain in the spotlight with Monday’s release of the Q3 GDP data, which Prime Minister Abe previously said would inform his... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Which sector is gaining most from the weaker yen? Several factors determine how currency weakness affects firms in different export sectors. Over the past two years, the chemical industry and the car industry have seen the biggest gains in export... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong headwinds still buffeting Japanese consumers The weakness of demand after the recent consumption tax hike pushed the Bank of Japan on Friday to ease policy and could prompt the government in coming weeks to cancel the second hike currently... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much damage would a delay in the tax hike do? Recent comments by PM Abe suggest that next year’s scheduled hike in the sales tax might be delayed. Concerns about the economic impact of a further tax hike are understandable given the weakness of... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More monetary easing needed to offset fiscal drag Japan is emerging from its second-quarter slump but weak household consumption and business investment, combined with further fiscal austerity, are likely to keep domestic demand sluggish. What’s more... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the weaker yen doing more harm than good? The weaker yen hasn’t resulted in the hoped-for improvement in export competitiveness. It has boosted corporate profits, but the pass-through to business investment has been weaker than usual... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan back in recession? The latest Tankan survey suggests that the economy shrank again in the third quarter, as does the prolonged fall in industrial production. However, we think the recent decline in output reflects the... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
