Japan Economics Weekly How much of a threat is “hollowing out”? The conventional wisdom is that Japan’s firms have increasingly shifted production facilities abroad in recent years, resulting in a “hollowing out” of the country’s domestic manufacturing sector. But... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak Q2 GDP underlines case for more easing Last quarter's GDP figures were weaker than we had expected, and we've adjusted our growth forecast for 2014 from 1.5% to 0.9%. What's more, growth in the current fiscal year may be close to zero... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the recovery from the sales tax hike already over? A string of weak data in recent weeks has cast doubt over the strength of the recovery from the slump triggered by the consumption tax hike. However, it had always been unlikely that the weakness... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Housing market hit hard by sales tax hike Housing starts and sales have plunged as a result of the sales tax hike, and residential investment will likely contract in both Q2 and Q3. While the experience from the last consumption tax hike is... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Are tensions with China hurting exports? Japan’s share of Chinese imports has fallen below that of the EU and South Korea recently. One reason is that large numbers of Japanese firms have shifted production facilities to China. This shouldn... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don't write off the recovery in business investment The sharp drop in machinery orders in April and May casts doubts on the prospects for capital spending. However, we are not too worried. Business investment was exceptionally strong in Q1, so a fall... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Too soon to declare victory on inflation Japanese GDP surely contracted in the second quarter in the wake of April’s consumption tax hike, but the latest survey evidence suggests that a recovery is already underway. In the meantime the Bank... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Energy costs to remain high despite nuclear restart A reshuffle at the nuclear energy watchdog has paved the way for the restart of atomic reactors in Japan. But the economic benefits of this change should not be overplayed. Only around a third of the... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited growth boost from revised “third arrow” The revised “Growth Strategy” published this week contained some positive surprises. In particular, it proposes a revision of the tax and social security system that could result in a sizeable boost... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Underlying price pressure has eased dramatically April’s consumption tax hike has made it more difficult to assess the strength of consumer price pressures. But different approaches that make allowance for the one-off impact of the tax increase lead... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Could a revamped GPIF lower the pension deficit? Pension provision is a significant drain on Japan's fiscal resources in part because the returns generated by the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) have fallen short of those earned by... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How reliable are Japan’s preliminary GDP estimates? The two preliminary estimates of GDP are among the most widely followed indicators of Japan’s economy. The good news is that neither of these early estimates displays major biases relative to the... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan's fiscal position really that bad? Japan is widely known to have the highest gross government debt level relative to the size of its economy in the developed world but some commentators have argued that the net debt picture is much... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the “third arrow” regain momentum? The second version of the government’s “Growth Strategy”, which is due next month, should include a pledge to cut corporate taxes, and perhaps some measures to cut red tape in Special Economic Zones... 26th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect from post-tax hike data If Japan’s past experience is any guide, the next few weeks will deliver a run of downbeat data reflecting a plunge in domestic demand after the consumption tax hike. In fact, many indicators have... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will corporate tax cuts boost investment? The planned shift from corporate to consumption taxes should boost overall economic growth in coming years. However, the benefits from corporate tax cuts alone may be smaller than hoped for, as many... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
