Japan Economics Weekly A look ahead to the Upper House elections The precise results of the upcoming Upper House elections may matter less than commonly thought. While the governing LDP/New Komeito coalition will probably regain a majority of the seats, it is... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tankan likely to indicate recovery gathering pace The main factors behind the partial recovery in Japanese equities in the last few days have been external, namely the fading of concerns about the outlook for US monetary policy and the risks of a... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Market forecast revisions (mostly for the better) The focus in the past week has been the impact on Japanese financial markets of potential changes to US monetary policy. We have revised our forecasts in the wake of the latest volatility, but the... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is 3% growth achievable? Many commentators have dismissed the government’s 3% target for GDP growth as far too ambitious. But there are two key points that at least some have missed. First, the target applies to nominal... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should we now worry about the yen? If the recent volatility in Japan’s equity and bond markets was not enough to undermine confidence, the yen has also rebounded in the last few days. However, the partial recovery in the Japanese... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Edging out of deflation Japan’s inflation rates look set to turn positive soon. Admittedly, nationwide inflation was still firmly negative on a year-on-year basis in April. But the more timely data for the Tokyo CPI in May... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Taking stock of the recent market volatility If the global financial community was not already following the progress of “Abenomics” closely, Thursday’s slump in the Nikkei has certainly focused worldwide attention on what is happening in Japan... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Was Q1’s strength really due to Abenomics? The encouraging first quarter GDP data have prompted us to revise up our growth forecast for 2013 as a whole. However, while “Abenomics” has certainly boosted sentiment, the jury is still out on... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More downside for yen than upside for Nikkei The yen finally weakened past 100 to the dollar on Friday, giving the Nikkei another major boost. The timing has been widely attributed to the release of data showing that Japanese investors were net... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Doubts lingering at the BoJ Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting was mainly concerned with tying up loose ends left over after the policy overhaul earlier in April. But it also revealed that some Policy Board members are unconvinced... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus? What fiscal stimulus? Most commentators appear to have taken official estimates of the scale of the fiscal stimulus in 2013 entirely at face value. At the same time, they are ignoring the elephant in the room – the planned... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should we worry about rising JGB yields? After initially declining, JGB yields are now higher than they were before the Bank of Japan announced its bold monetary easing. This result is not as perverse as it may seem, nor is it necessarily... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Trade deal a test of commitment to structural reform The Bank of Japan upended expectations for monetary easing at its first April meeting and, in doing so, put the ball back into the government’s court. “Abenomics” was always meant to include... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Tankan likely to signal only an anaemic recovery The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey for March (to be released on Monday) will probably show that large manufacturers thought business conditions were less negative in the first quarter and might even... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Sentiment running well ahead of hard data A slew of data in the coming week will provide a check-up on the health of the Japanese economy as we approach the end of the first quarter. Surveys of consumer and business confidence show no sign... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
