Japan Economics Weekly Is weak external demand holding back the recovery? The Bank of Japan has blamed weak exports for the recent sluggish performance of the economy, but domestic demand has hardly been vigorous either. We believe the Bank is pointing the finger at... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumer spending to remain sluggish With poorly paid non-regular jobs accounting for the bulk of new job creation and the tight labour market not providing the hoped-for boost to wages, we think that the near-term outlook for consumer... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How useful are the BoJ’s alternative inflation gauges? With falls in headline inflation raising questions about its policy approach, the Bank of Japan has recently been highlighting alternative price gauges that show inflation to be rising. These... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Equity sell-off to reverse soon The recent equity market sell-off in Japan, which originated in China, does not reflect a major deterioration in the economic outlook for Japan. In fact, there are signs that Chinese demand for... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly GPIF's higher returns won’t solve social security woes The Government Pension Investment Fund achieved a record profit last year, and the value of its assets climbed to a fresh high. However, the fund won’t earn double-digit returns on a sustained basis... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The government giveth, the BoJ giveth straight back The Bank of Japan will soon become the largest holder of Japanese government bonds. Since the income it earns on those securities is mostly transferred back to the government, the Bank’s JGB purchases... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The “Third Arrow” has slowed to a crawl Prime Minister Abe returned to power in late 2012 with the intention to lift average real GDP growth to 2% by implementing policies at “unprecedented speed”. Despite some success incertain areas... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy to recover only slowly from Q2 slump The June activity and spending data cemented our view that Japan’s economy shrank last quarter.While business surveys point to a rebound in Q3, growth will likely remain too slow to create strong... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Net government debt to remain stable We expect the ratio of net government debt to GDP to remain broadly unchanged in coming years, as a weaker yen and a buoyant stock market should lift the value of public assets by enough to offset... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth to remain sluggish over medium term We expect Japan’s GDP growth rate to average under 1% over coming years, too slow for the Bank of Japan to take its foot off the monetary pedal any time soon. For financial markets, this is likely to... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weaker yen starts to restrain import volumes Almost three years after the yen started its steep fall, there is still little evidence of any boost to export volumes. Instead, a weaker exchange rate has mostly improved the non-energy trade balance... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would Grexit matter for Japan? With trade and direct financial ties between Japan and Europe relatively weak, the main channel through which Greek exit from the euro-zone could affect Japan is a pick-up in safe haven flows. If that... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How fast do wages have to rise to reach 2% inflation? We estimate that wages would have to rise by 3% or more to reach the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target. Even if the unemployment rate drops further in the months ahead, we think that wage growth may... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Deflationary threat from cheaper oil far from over Only a small part of the recent plunge in energy prices has been passed on to consumers in Japan, in large part because firms rather than households are the biggest users of oil and they have not... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Abenomics working after all? The jump in output in Q1 and, over a longer period, rapid growth in the number of people available for work are signs that Abenomics is starting to have an impact. However, the economy likely slowed... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to make of the renewed weakening of the yen? We remain convinced that a weaker yen is needed to boost demand, lift inflation and put the public finances on a sustainable path. As long as the exchange rate continues to weaken gradually rather... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
