Capital Daily Italian government bond yields will probably rise further US core CPI inflation is likely to have held steady at 2.1% (Monday) We think that GDP fell in Germany, and growth was revised down in the euro-zone, in Q2 Euro-zone and US industrial production... 9th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily No big bubble in bonds Japan’s GDP growth is likely to have slowed substantially in Q2 (00.50 BST) We think that China’s CPI inflation continued to rise in July (02.30 BST) The UK economy probably did not grow at all during... 8th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Gauging the market fallout from China’s change of tack Further weakness in the Chinese renminbi is likely in our view We think that wage growth in Japan rose slightly in June (00.30 BST) The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably leave its policy rate... 5th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Trade war not certain to force the Fed’s hand Unlike in Australia, interest rates are likely to be cut in New Zealand We think that GDP growth in the UK stagnated in Q2 (Friday) We expect the US ISM non-manufacturing index to have edged higher in... 2nd August 2019 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily UK equities may stop underperforming, even in a no-deal Brexit We think that euro-zone core inflation fell in July, and GDP growth slowed in Q2 (10.00 BST) The FOMC will probably cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 25bp (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central... 30th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Swiss government bond yields could still fall further We expect the Bank of Japan to extend its forward guidance to summer 2020 or beyond Euro-zone ESI is likely to have fallen to about 102.0 in July (10.00 BST) US personal spending probably rose by... 29th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily ECB unlikely to be main driver of E-Z assets in the rest of 2019 We think that the ECB will cut rates in September and restart net asset purchases shortly after The central bank of Russia will probably cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.25% (11.30 BST) US GDP growth... 25th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily A lot of bad news already priced into UK assets Incoming UK Prime Minister Johnson to reveal his Brexit plans in acceptance speech We think that July’s PMIs remained consistent with a sharp slowdown in growth in the US … … and with subdued growth... 23rd July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in the Swiss franc has further to run in our view Boris Johnson is likely to win the UK Conservative Party leadership election We expect interest rates to be cut by 50bp in Nigeria, but remain on hold in Hungary Euro-zone consumer confidence probably... 22nd July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Low credit spreads reflect excessive optimism We think that Japan’s headline CPI inflation dropped to 0.6% y/y in June (00.30 BST) Canada’s retail sales are likely to have edged up in May (13.30 BST) University of Michigan US consumer confidence... 18th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Hard to see much upside for sterling, despite its recent fall Sterling has continued to struggle over the past days, pushed down by fears over Brexit and the UK economy. We doubt that the currency will rebound anytime soon, and there is still a significant... 17th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Investors betting on further rally in BTPs likely to be disappointed UK CPI inflation was probably unchanged at 2.0% y/y last month (09.30 BST) We think that the euro-zone inflation rate for June will be revised upwards (10.00 BST) End of plant shutdowns probably... 16th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Oil currencies’ outperformance unlikely to last Since oil prices started to recover in early June, the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have outperformed their G10 peers as investors have revised up their expectations of short-term interest... 12th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Negative bond yields have boosted the appeal of gold China’s export and import growth probably remained weak in June Rebound in euro-zone industrial production unlikely to offset fully April’s fall (10.00 BST) US core producer price inflation may have... 11th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Fed easing still likely to disappoint investors in Treasuries Fed minutes from June meeting are likely to take a back seat after Powell’ testimony We think that Sweden’s inflation fell below 2% last month (08.30 BST) US core consumer prices probably picked up in... 10th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily BoE likely to tighten if a deal is reached, pushing Gilt yields up UK MPs to launch fresh bid to stop next PM forcing through a “no-deal” Brexit Japan’s wage growth data continue to be distorted by change in methodology (00.30 BST) Powell could provide clarity on... 8th July 2019 · 5 mins read
