Capital Daily We think Treasury yields and oil prices will continue to diverge Although the two markets have often moved in tandem, we expect Treasury yields to continue to rise over the next few years even as oil prices resume their decline. 12th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think the divergence in “rotation sectors” will continue We think that the sectoral outperformance so far this month of financials relative to energy and materials has further to run. 10th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Some more thoughts on the Treasury yield curve Our expectation that the US yield curve will “bear steepen” might seem strange given its behaviour ahead of recent major Fed tightening cycles. After all, in three of the last four, the spread between... 9th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Strong employment report points to a steeper US yield curve We think that today’s non-farm payrolls release, and recent news on the bipartisan US infrastructure bill, add some weight to our view that the past week’s climb in US Treasury yields and steepening... 6th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Post-MPC rise in Gilt yields may be a sign of things to come The 10-year Gilt yield rose slightly after the Bank of England left its policy settings unchanged today and we expect it to continue to push higher over the coming years. 5th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are investors concerned about peak big-tech earnings? The share prices of most of the US big-tech firms have faltered – and underperformed the broader market – since they reported another quarter of consensus-beating earnings results last week. This has... 4th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Global headwinds likely to weigh further on the Aussie dollar We think that RBA’s relatively hawkish stance will not be enough to prevent further falls in the Aussie dollar. 3rd August 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect China’s bond market to diverge from those elsewhere We think China’s long-term government bond yields will continue to fall as the country’s economy slows further, even if yields rebound elsewhere. 2nd August 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect stock market gains to underwhelm from here Although we don’t think the latest ructions in stock markets suggest a more significant rout is on the way, we suspect that stocks’ recovery from their pandemic-era lows has largely run its course... 30th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market pessimism looks overdone The US yield curve continues to send a gloomy message, which we think is hard to square with the economic outlook. 29th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think US real yields are unlikely to stay this low The yields of long-dated US Treasuries have edged down this week, and those of TIPS have dropped to a new record low, but we still expect both to recover over the next couple of years. 28th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market sell-off and the rest of the world Although equity indices in both Hong Kong and mainland China have fallen sharply in recent days, the impact on financial markets elsewhere in the world has, so far, been remarkably limited. This... 27th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The ECB’s new guidance and its implications for E-Z bonds We don’t think the changes to the ECB’s guidance announced today or the Bank’s recent strategy review materially alter the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone. However, they make... 22nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect EM currencies to remain under pressure We doubt that today’s rebound in emerging market currencies marks the start of a renewed rally and expect them to continue to depreciate against the US dollar over the next few years. 21st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Stock market wobble probably not a sign of things to come We doubt that the recent weakness in global equities is the start of a larger rout and think the market will recover before long. 20th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the (slightly) mixed messages in markets In recent weeks, it has often looked as though equity markets aren’t quite on the same page as bond and currency markets. Indeed, despite its fall today, the S&P 500 remains within touching distance... 19th July 2021 · 4 mins read
