Capital Daily Appetite for risk, rather than monetary policy, to drive dollar/euro UK MPs are likely to vote against PM Johnson’s second bid for a general election this evening Climbing food prices probably pushed China’s inflation higher in August (02.30 BST) We think that core... 9th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Outlook for the US labour market favours bonds over equities UK MPs are likely to vote against PM Johnson’s second bid for a general election (Monday) We expect the ECB to cut deposit rate by 10bp and reinforce forward guidance (Thursday) US retail sales... 6th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in gold may be reaching an end Germany’s industrial production is likely to have fallen further in July (07.00 BST) Russia’s central bank will probably cut its deposit rate by 25bp (11.30 BST) We estimate that US non-farm payrolls... 5th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily New coalition could keep the rally in Italian bonds going Sterling falls as threat of parliamentary suspension fuels fears of a no-deal Brexit EC Business and Consumer Survey probably fell to a 41-month low in August (10.00 BST) We estimate that the US... 28th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily If Trump pivots to fiscal policy, bond yields could rebound We think that Germany’s Ifo survey deteriorated further in August (Monday) Euro-zone inflation probably remained subdued in August (Friday) Divergence between US manufacturing sector and real... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Investors still look complacent on Italian political risk US FOMC minutes might give details about support for further easing (Wed. 19.00 BST) We think that the euro-zone composite PMI and consumer confidence index fell in August Account of last ECB meeting... 21st August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US small-caps echo yield curve’s gloomy message Italian PM Conte has announced his resignation, raising the chance of early elections UK PM Johnson to discuss Brexit backstop with French and German leaders ahead of G7 Minutes from last US FOMC... 20th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Germany’s fiscal policy unlikely to alter outlook for bonds The PBOC’s may loosen policy again as it launches a new loan prime rate Italy’s government is likely to lose a vote of no confidence on Tuesday Russia’s weak activity data in July probably pave the... 19th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Risk of “Japanification” looms over Europe’s banks Japan’s exports probably fell at a slower pace in July (Monday) Powell could signal that the Fed will cut rates further at Jackson Hole symposium (Thursday) We think that policymakers will cut rates... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Yield curve distortion not a reason to ignore risk of a recession We think that Mexico’s central bank will cut its policy rate to 8.00% (Thursday, 19.00 BST) GDP growth in Malaysia probably slowed a bit in Q2 (Friday, 05.00 BST) US consumer confidence likely to have... 15th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Real yields could rise if there really is a global recession US retail sales growth is likely to have edged down in July (13.30 BST) We think that US industrial production fell by about 0.1% m/m in July (14.15 BST) Interest rates will probably be left on hold... 14th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Spill-overs from Argentina likely to be limited US administration delays new tariffs on many Chinese imports until 15th December Germany’s GDP probably contracted in Q2, and euro-zone growth may be revised down We think that UK CPI inflation... 13th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Sterling’s slide is unlikely to stop soon Argentina’s financial markets likely to remain under pressure as focus returns to default risk UK unemployment probably fell in June but is unlikely to go much lower (09.30 BST) We think that US... 12th August 2019 · 5 mins read
