Capital Daily Market forces unlikely to turn up the heat on the BoJ We have been arguing for a while that the BoJ wouldn’t ease monetary policy in 2019 and 2020 due to concerns about the impact of negative interest rates on the health of financial institutions. And... 31st October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Soft landing for US economy unlikely to boost S&P 500 further Today’s US GDP report suggests the Fed is successfully piloting the economy towards a soft landing. Even so, the very slight slowdown in the rate of growth in Q3 – from 2.0% to 1.9% on a q/q... 30th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt that Fed policy will push Treasury yields up further The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by nearly 40bp from its lows of two months ago. But in our view there is little scope for it to rise a lot further, given the outlook for Fed policy. 29th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Bond yields unlikely to revisit their lows this easing cycle Bond yields continued to rise ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, and the S&P 500 opened at a new all-time high this morning. While we think the worst is yet to come for the global economy and suspect... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Draghi leaves, but ultra-low bond yields are probably here to stay Mario Draghi’s swansong at today’s ECB meeting caused few ripples in the markets. Nonetheless, we think that the recent decisions taken under his leadership to cut rates and relaunch QE set the stage... 24th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Bond yields likely to keep rising in Norway, but not in Sweden Higher policy rates in Norway and Sweden have not prevented bond yields there from falling since late last year. Yields have bounced back recently but, given our view about monetary policy, we think... 23rd October 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily No clear sign of a bubble in either US real estate or equities Although the share prices of US homebuilders and companies more generally are both now near record highs, there doesn’t seem to be a bubble in either residential real estate or the stock market as a... 22nd October 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed fortunes for UK equities amid prospect of new Brexit deal The comparatively poor performance of the FTSE 100 since 10th October is a reaction to the rebound in sterling since Boris Johnson agreed a new Brexit deal with other EU leaders rather than a... 21st October 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Resilience of US equities and corporate bonds unlikely to last Equities and corporate bonds in the US have so far shrugged off the worrying signs for the global economy coming from lower oil prices. But we suspect that it won’t be long before slower global growth... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Stock market bulls shouldn’t take much comfort from the mid-90s Stock market bulls hoping for a re-run of the mid-1990s, when the S&P 500 powered ahead despite a slowdown in corporate earnings, are likely to be disappointed. Unlike then, stocks have already had a... 17th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily BoE likely to tighten if Brexit deal is agreed, raising £ & Gilt yields So much has been written about the rise in sterling and Gilt yields this week on renewed hopes of a Brexit deal that it is worth taking stock of what is now priced into the markets. 16th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US sanctions only worsen Turkish lira’s already-dire prospects We think that today’s rebound in the lira won’t last, even if the US doesn’t ratchet up its sanctions on Turkey. 15th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Trade deal wouldn’t prevent equities from slumping in our view The UK and EU will try to strike a Brexit deal at a summit ending on Thursday US manufacturing output probably slumped in September We expect the Bank of Korea to cut its policy rate on Wednesday 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation unlikely to push bond yields lower High-level trade talks between the US & China probably won’t lead to a comprehensive deal The central bank of Peru might cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 2.25% (00.00 BST) We think that consumer... 10th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily A pick-up in sterling looks increasingly far off Even if US and China reach a partial trade deal this week, we doubt that it will last Account of ECB’s September meeting to highlight divisions among policymakers Latest round of tariffs probably... 9th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily ECB split unlikely to push up bond yields Fed Chair Jerome Powell might give hints about future path of interest rates Germany’s industrial production probably declined in August (07.00 BST) We think that US producer prices fell a bit last... 7th October 2019 · 6 mins read
