The decision by OPEC+ to rollover current levels of output will keep a lid on GDP growth in the Gulf economies for now, but we expect it to then accelerate. Meanwhile, we think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the outlook will become more challenging from 2025 as oil prices fall back and it becomes more difficult to sustain loose fiscal policy. Outside of the Gulf, macro imbalances are easing. But this remains contingent on governments continuing reforms and keeping policy tight, which will weigh on the pace of recoveries. As we have long argued, Tunisia remains on the path to a messy balance of payments crisis and sovereign default.