Commercial real estate – How bad will it get?
How surging interest rates and structural change are upending US, UK and European commercial property
Offices Face The Biggest Value Falls
Will Financial Distress Cause Bigger Downturns?
Europe Commercial Property Update
Weighing up the risks from open-ended property funds
Recent turmoil in the banking sector has drawn attention to open-ended property investment funds (OEFs) due to their mismatch between footloose inflows and illiquid real estate assets. While we think...
US Cities Face Divergent Outlooks
US Commercial Property Focus
Where are the risks from US commercial real estate greatest?
While we expect a more-than 20% peak-to-trough price correction for US commercial real estate, offices face a much tougher outlook, with large falls in net operating incomes compounding the broader re...
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook
San Francisco and Seattle values to drop 40% in 2023-25
Further downgrades to our national office outlook have driven corresponding cuts to return prospects in our metro-level forecasts this quarter. San Francisco still has the poorest outlook, with our...
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook
Clear split between weak west and strong south
The latest economic and property market data support the view we’ve held since last year that there would be a growing differentiation between southern and western markets. We expect that to persist...
Our Latest Forecast Views
US Commercial Property Outlook
Capital values to fall by another 15%, offices to fare worse
The effects of March’s regional bank failures have yet to come through in the performance data, but transaction volumes have fallen off a cliff. Signs of distress in offices are growing as the sector...
Euro-zone Commercial Property Outlook
Price falls slowing but poor rent outlook to drag on recovery
The slowdown in rent growth at the start of this year is likely to persist given the weak economic backdrop. And although the property price correction has slowed, we think stretched valuations will...