Commercial real estate – How bad will it get?
What does recent financial market turmoil mean for US, UK and European commercial property?
The bank collapses and subsequent financial market strains in March have seen attention turn to commercial real estate, owing to high CRE exposures on regional bank balance sheets and concerns about open-ended fund liquidity, amongst others. This page pulls together all the relevant research from our global commercial real estate analysis, answering questions about how the risks could play out, which investor and lender types are of most concern, and which countries, sectors and cities could bear the brunt.
Global impacts of the banking crisis
Europe Commercial Property Update
Weighing up the risks from open-ended property funds
Recent turmoil in the banking sector has drawn attention to open-ended property investment funds (OEFs) due to their mismatch between footloose inflows and illiquid real estate assets. While we think...
Why the US is so exposed
US Commercial Property Focus
Where are the risks from US commercial real estate greatest?
While we expect a more-than 20% peak-to-trough price correction for US commercial real estate, offices face a much tougher outlook, with large falls in net operating incomes compounding the broader re...
US Commercial Property Update
Initial US real estate takeaways from the bank collapses
The direct impact on real estate of the collapse of two US regional banks over the weekend is likely to be relatively small. But we expect lending criteria to become more cautious in the short-term...