Commercial real estate – How bad will it get?

Latest analysis: Estimating distress amid growing market concerns

Europe Commercial Property Focus

How big a threat is debt distress in Europe?

Falling interest rates will not prevent a rise in refinancing distress in Europe in the coming years – debt funding gaps will be large and forced selling will increase. However, financing pressures...

7th February 2024 20 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Will commercial property distress spread to the UK?

Distress in the US commercial property market is once again in the news, but the risk of that spreading to the UK is low. The rise in aggregate loan-to-value ratios to date looks manageable and with...

6th February 2024 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Another mini banking crisis looks unlikely

Although last week’s renewed underperformance of US regional banks and equity office REITs sparked fears of another mini banking crisis, a fairly steady decline in the option-adjusted spreads (OAS) of...

6th February 2024 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Distressing state of affairs for some multifamily investors

Recent headlines have drawn attention to the immediate risks facing multifamily investors and lenders. While we think this concern is appropriate, we think the biggest risks face assets financed at...

5th February 2024 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Why we see more distress coming in 2024

We expect evidence of distress to ramp up this year as loan extensions end. Many borrowers will be forced to either inject new capital, return assets to lenders or sell into a soft market. Those...

22nd January 2024 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Why have office delinquencies not hit GFC-era highs?

The resilience of the US economy in this cycle means the rise in distressed assets has been much slower than in the GFC-era recession, as relatively few firms have gone bust. But the structural...

29th February 2024 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Offices still the most likely source of distress

While we expect the office and multifamily sectors to account for the lion’s share of distressed assets over the next couple of years, there is an important distinction between the two. Unlike...

15th February 2024 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Answering questions from our debt distress Drop-In

This week we held a Drop-In on commercial property distress across the US, UK and Europe. Clients can access a recording here and find related analysis on our dedicated landing page. This Update...

16th February 2024 3 mins read