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No holiday cheer for CRE debt

Our expectation of rising evidence of distressed assets in 2024 has come to bear, but we think more is still to come over the next couple of years. Some of that will stem from matured loans requiring refinancing, which have already hit an all-time high in the CMBS world, stymied by high debt costs. Other concerns remain centered on the office and multifamily sectors, where we expect no get out of jail free card for assets that have seen LTVs exceed 100% or DSCRs fall below 1.0.

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