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UK Forecast Forum January 2019

24 January, 2019
Royal Automobile Club, London

With Brexit still unresolved and the global economy now slowing, the outlook for the UK economy and its financial markets appears ominous. At our UK Forecast Forum, we considered how the UK usually fares when the global economy slows, how businesses and households will respond and how Brexit will influence the situation. We also assessed how policymakers and the financial markets will respond to both Brexit and the global slowdown. We concluded that 2020 might be a much better year for the UK economy than most people are expecting.

  • How will the UK cope with the global slowdown?

    Paul Dales, our Chief UK Economist, discusses the following:

    • How does the UK usually perform during a global slowdown?
    • What’s going to happen to exports and investment this time?
    • What influence will Brexit have?
    • GDP growth in various Brexit outcomes.

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  • Can households pick up the baton?

    Thomas Pugh, our UK Economist, discusses the following:

    • What will happen to real wages?
    • Will households be willing to spend more?
    • Will higher interest rates hurt?

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  • What’s the outlook for monetary & fiscal policy?

    Ruth Gregory, our Senior UK Economist, discusses the following:

    • What next for fiscal policy?
    • Will the MPC take its lead from the Fed?
    • How will policymakers respond to a no deal Brexit?

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  • How are the markets positioned for Brexit and the global slowdown?

    John Higgins, our Chief Markets Economist, discusses the following:

    • What is the outlook for sterling, Gilts and UK equities?
    • How will they be affected by the terms of Brexit?
    • How will they be influenced by the global slowdown?
    • Conclusions and forecasts.

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