Mortgage Applications (Jun.)

Mortgage applications surged in June, as existing borrowers took advantage of declining mortgage interest rates. Meanwhile, house purchase applications also rose, but only modestly. Looking ahead, we expect concerns over the economy and a lack of inventory to keep demand for house purchase in check, meaning we expect applications for home purchase to tread water over the rest of 2019.
Hansen Lu Property Economist
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US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Nov.)

A rise in mortgage rates to an eight-month high of 3.31% by the end of November failed to dampen home purchase demand, which surged to a nine-month high. The drop in 10-year Treasury yields from the arrival of the Omicron variant implies mortgage rates will fall back over the next couple of weeks, which may provide some further support to demand. But with affordability stretched we doubt the current level of home purchase applications can be sustained beyond the next few weeks.

1 December 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep.)

Annual house price growth fell for the first time in 16-months in September, and stretched affordability means it should continue to slow. It is too soon to say what impact the arrival of the Omicron variant will have on the housing market. But one immediate effect has been a fall in interest rates, which if sustained may give prices some support over the remainder of the year.

30 November 2021

US Housing Market Update

Why are pending and existing home sales diverging?

An increase in the quality of mortgage borrowers, and record low inventory, are boosting the mortgage closing rate and leading to an increase in the share of pending home sales converted into existing home sales. Those factors are not set to go into reverse anytime soon, so we don’t think existing sales will snap back to match the pending sales index over the next few months.

29 November 2021

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UK Commercial Property Data Response

Credit Conditions Survey (Q3)

Banks maintain property lending caution Mortgage availability saw a modest improvement Q3, but not enough to reverse the large fall seen in Q2. Meanwhile, credit availability to commercial property fell sharply during the quarter, and lenders expect to remain cautious in Q4. According to the Bank of England’s credit conditions survey, a balance of 10% of lenders reported a rise…

15 October 2020

UK Housing Market Data Response

Credit Conditions Survey (Q3)

Mortgage availability saw a modest improvement Q3, but not enough to reverse the large fall seen in Q2. Meanwhile, credit availability to commercial property fell sharply during the quarter, and lenders expect to remain cautious in Q4.

15 October 2020

UK Housing Market Update

Employment revisions highlight rental market risks

The big downward revision to employment in the labour market statistics reveals that renters have seen a larger hit to employment than homeowners. This supports our view that house prices will be resilient next year, while private rents will probably fall.

14 October 2020
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