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Employment growth slowing, but no sign of collapse

We forecast that payroll employment growth slowed fairly sharply in June, but remained solid at 250,000. That should be enough to keep the Fed on track for another 75bp rate hike in July.

Payrolls Drop-In (8th July, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Our US team will be briefing on the latest employment report, answering your questions as they address key issues including the inflation outlook, the Fed’s plans and the recession question. Register now.
Andrew Hunter Senior US Economist
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US Economics Update

Rise in delinquencies not a major threat

The rise in new delinquencies on consumer loans over the first half of the year mostly reflects rising interest costs. With debt levels low, real incomes on track to begin rising again amid a drop back in inflation and the labour market holding up well, that rise in delinquencies is unlikely to turn into a surge.

10 August 2022

US Economics Update

What to make of the fall in participation

With most workers who left during the pandemic mostly returned to the labour force by early 2022, it is little surprise that growth of the labour force has slowed. But the decline in the participation rate over recent months also appears to reflect some softening in demand for workers over recent months which, with the notable exception of payrolls, is increasingly evident across almost all labour market indicators.

10 August 2022

US Data Response

Consumer Prices (Jul.)

Consumer prices were unchanged in July and there's a good chance that prices will fall outright in August. With core consumer prices increasing by a more modest 0.3% m/m last month, which was a 10-month low, we still think the Fed will hike interest rates by 50bp at the upcoming meeting in September. CPI Drop-In (10th Aug): Will July finally mark the turning point for US inflation? Join our US Economics team for a briefing shortly after the CPI release for a briefing on the inflation outlook and the Fed response. Register now.  

10 August 2022

More from Andrew Hunter

US Economics Update

Easing shortages to push down core goods inflation

There has been little sign that price pressures have eased yet, but the survey evidence suggests that supply shortages continue to improve. That reinforces our view that core goods inflation will fall over the second half of the year.

29 June 2022

US Economics Weekly

Fed refuses to blink, as growth fears mount

Chair Jerome Powell signalled this week that the Fed will press ahead with its planned series of aggressive interest rate hikes, even as evidence mounts that economic growth will be weak in the second half of the year.

24 June 2022

US Data Response

Industrial Production (May)

The muted 0.2% m/m rise in industrial production in May adds to the evidence that the economy is slowing. But there is still little in activity data to suggest a recession is on the horizon, or to dissuade the Fed from pressing ahead with more aggressive policy tightening. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

17 June 2022
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