The incoming data this week were almost universally
stronger than expected, with even July’s non-farm
payroll figures coming in above consensus. With the
number of new daily coronavirus infections
beginning to abate, we expect further improvement in
the activity data over the coming months and
employment growth should pick up again too. The
upshot is that the balance of risks to our forecast that
third-quarter GDP will rebound by 25.0% annualised
now lies to the upside.
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