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Global migration to bounce back

Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus from a big rise in the number of people leaving Africa over the coming decades. This could help to mitigate the problem of ageing populations in developed markets, although countries will continue to display varying degrees of openness to immigration.
Vicky Redwood Senior Economic Adviser
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More from The Long Run

Long Run Update

Composition of spending will change as populations age

The composition of spending changes as consumers age, with a greater proportion allocated to healthcare, food and drink, and less to education, transport and recreation. The experience of countries that have already aged significantly, such as Japan, suggests that this will have a significant impact on employment in these sectors in countries that are set to age rapidly over the coming decades. What’s more, this could weigh on productivity growth as the sectors likely to see the greatest increase in demand are typically more labour-intensive.

1 August 2022

Long Run Update

S&P 500’s valuation points to mediocre long-term returns

US equities have plunged this year, but the S&P 500’s valuation remains a long way from looking low on most measures, including Shiller’s CAPE. This is a key reason why we expect the returns from US equities over the next decade or so to fall well short of those seen over the past ten years.

25 July 2022

Long Run Update

Which countries can offer lessons for ageing populations?

Ageing populations will be one of the main structural challenges facing many economies over the coming decades. Ahead of a series of work analysing what can be learned from countries ageing rapidly, this Update starts by looking at which those are.

14 July 2022

More from Vicky Redwood

Global Economics Update

There’s room for more fiscal support if needed

Concerns about the new Omicron variant raise the question of whether there is scope for policy to be as supportive during a new wave of the virus as it has been so far in the pandemic. Significant policy stimulus would probably only be needed if things got really bad again. If they did, financial markets would probably tolerate a further rise in government spending and borrowing; instead, the constraints would be political ones.

9 December 2021

Global Economics Focus

Will labour shortages spur productivity gains?

One possible upside of the current labour market shortages in developed economies is that they could push firms towards expanding output by raising investment and productivity instead of relying on cheap labour. However, any gains in productivity may not materialise quickly enough to prevent central banks from reacting to the pick-up in wage growth. In view of the wider interest, we have also made this Global Economics Focus available to clients of our Long Run Service.

2 December 2021

Global Economics Update

“Excess” household savings could yet boost spending

With household saving rates still elevated in most developed economies, “excess savings” have continued to rise. If people were to run down these savings, this would breathe new life into consumer recoveries.

9 November 2021
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