Global Economics Focus CBDCs: evolution, not revolution Many central banks, especially in DMs, appear unconvinced about the need for retail central bank digital currencies CBDCs (rCBDCs) and so a big revolution in the monetary system seems unlikely. There... 5th June 2025 · 19 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Europe in a changing world Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, like all things in Europe, the subsequent changes are likely to be slow and deliberate. Europe will “derisk” from China in... 30th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Fiscal stimulus won’t fix Germany’s economy Germany’s historic shift to looser fiscal policy will give the economy a boost over the next couple of years, but we think growth will then slow, deindustrialisation will continue, and real income... 23rd May 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone debt dynamics: no longer core vs periphery Most euro-zone governments look set to continue running large budget deficits in the coming years. This will support aggregate demand and is a key reason why ECB interest rates will stay higher than... 14th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Is the current optimism about Europe justified? There has been an increase in optimism about the EU in recent months as it has been forced to take more responsibility for its own security, has loosened fiscal policy and has benefited from having a... 12th May 2025 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Mar-a-Lago Accord: cutting through the chatter It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the... 25th March 2025 · 25 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will defence spending turbocharge economic growth? The rise in defence spending that looks likely in many countries over the next few years will boost demand and output, albeit by less than the headline-grabbing figures might suggest. Meanwhile... 13th March 2025 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump and the implications for global fracturing Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its... 7th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Vision 2030: where it is going right (and wrong) Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say... 23rd September 2024 · 29 mins read
Long Run Focus The consequences of falling fertility rates There is huge uncertainty about whether fertility rates have reached a floor in those countries with the lowest rates. But even if they start to rise again, it is almost unavoidable that a rising... 24th June 2024 · 27 mins read
Industrial Metals Focus How metals-hungry will the green transition be? The metals-intensive nature of green technologies will add to demand for a host of industrial and battery metals, with green demand for copper and aluminium likely to grow twice as quickly as... 23rd May 2024 · 17 mins read
Long Run Focus The fiscal headache of ageing populations One of the key problems for countries with ageing populations is how to tackle the associated fiscal costs. Those countries which have a good record for structural reform and/or scope to raise taxes... 26th March 2024 · 24 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Will Africa unlock its potential? Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall... 21st March 2024 · 22 mins read
Global Economics Focus Financial stability in a world of higher interest rates Although the recent transition to a higher interest rate climate has not caused any lasting or systemic financial flare ups, it is probably too soon to sound the all-clear. And while a higher interest... 8th February 2024 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
