Global Economics Focus How deeply is AI taking hold in the economy? AI-related spending is giving a significant boost to aggregate demand and GDP growth in some countries. The biggest beneficiaries so far are the US, where the bulk of the spending is occurring, and... 20th March 2026 · 29 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s pension problem rears its head again There’s a growing acknowledgement that Brazil’s 2019 pension reform didn’t go far enough to ease fiscal pressures from the social security system. Indeed, Brazil is likely to see one of the largest... 19th February 2026 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Focus US still tops AI index, but China surges up the rankings We have updated our proprietary AI Economic Impact Index, which ranks major economies according to their ability to realise the long-run benefits of AI. The US still leads. The Asian tigers and UK... 17th February 2026 · 16 mins read
India Economics Focus India’s corporate investment is on the cusp of a revival We think conditions for the long-awaited revival in private corporate investment in India are now largely in place. As a result, we now expect real GDP growth in India to average 6.5% per year from... 5th February 2026 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How long will Portugal’s outperformance last? Portugal’s economy has benefited from a series of favourable developments in recent years, causing it to outperform most other euro-zone countries. We think this will continue over the next couple of... 15th January 2026 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Pensions & public finances: not just a French problem Far from being only a French problem, pensions will be a growing fiscal headache in all the major euro-zone countries in the coming decade as populations age. In France and Italy, this will add to the... 14th January 2026 · 24 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s AI rollout could rival the US One year on from DeepSeek’s breakthrough, Chinese AI is still hot on the heels of US tech. Despite hardware constraints, China looks set to remain close to the frontier of AI development. And China... 14th January 2026 · 31 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Shape of the Fractured World in 2026 Donald Trump’s tariff policies and his aggressive foreign policy approach are straining relationships with traditional US allies. One consequence that is apparent in our Global Fracturing Dashboard is... 12th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Has the AI “jobpocalypse” begun? The deterioration in the entry-level jobs market has sparked concerns that an “AI jobpocalypse” is upon us. While AI is a contributing factor – especially in some specialised fields like software... 11th November 2025 · 17 mins read
Commodities Focus OPEC at 65: shifting market dynamics expose frailties The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows no signs of slowing down in its “golden years”, but question marks about the future of oil demand, as well as the resilience of non... 10th September 2025 · 20 mins read
India Economics Focus Inside India’s infrastructure drive The government’s post-pandemic infrastructure drive is helping to ease some of the bottlenecks that have previously constrained India’s economy, with particular success in developing port, railway and... 3rd September 2025 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Focus Fracturing in the Age of Trump The global geopolitical map could have been redrawn by the end of Donald Trump’s second term. Some form of rapprochement between the US and China is conceivable in the next few years, as is a... 2nd September 2025 · 38 mins read
Bonds Focus The causes and consequences of waning demand for very long-dated bonds Very long-dated government bonds have been under serious pressure at times this year. Demand from traditional sources seems to have waned, and we doubt it’s coming back. In some cases, governments... 19th August 2025 · 28 mins read
India Economics Focus India and foreign market access: opening the gates India is now home to some of the world’s largest financial markets, but foreign access remains limited. That will change over time as policymakers continue to liberalise the capital account, but it is... 29th July 2025 · 12 mins read
Global Economics Focus The causes of fiscal crises and their economic impact History shows that there are no debt or deficit thresholds beyond which a fiscal crisis is inevitable. Rather, crises stem from a mix of high debt, poor debt dynamics, and weak fiscal credibility... 24th July 2025 · 26 mins read
Commodities Focus How the AI race will reshape global energy markets Artificial intelligence’s share of global electricity consumption is set to at least double by 2030, to around 3% of the total, and could drive almost half of electricity consumption growth in the US... 21st July 2025 · 15 mins read
