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Norway GDP (May) & Sweden GDP Indicator (May)

The larger-than-expected rise in mainland Norwegian GDP in May indicates that the economy is back in business following the lifting of restrictions, and it is likely to have regained its pre-virus level in June.

David Oxley Senior Europe Economist
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Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Dumbo does monetary policy in Stockholm

The elephant-based metaphor used by Governor Ingves this week to describe how the ECB’s actions affect the Riksbank was particularly well judged given the increasing chance that Swedish and euro-zone policymakers will deliver mammoth 50bp rate hikes over the coming months. It will be another very quiet week on the data front next week. Riksbank Deputy Governor Anna Breman is due to participate in a panel discussion on the growing role of the financial sector in the climate transition on Tuesday but we would be surprised if she resisted using the platform to deliver a hawkish policy message.
ECB Drop-In (24th May 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Could the ECB deliver a hawkish surprise? Join economists from our Europe and Markets teams for a discussion about what to expect from the Bank’s tightening cycle, including the chances for a bumper hike in July or even an early move at next month’s meeting. Register now.

20 May 2022

Nordic & Swiss Chart Book

Rising CPI expectations occupying minds at Riksbank

Just as policymakers at the ECB are becoming more concerned about inflation expectations, the rise in expectations in Sweden is giving the Riksbank plenty to fret about too. The Bank’s preferred measure – gleaned from a survey of money market participants over a five-year horizon – jumped from 2.2% in April to 2.4% in May. (For context, the previous series high was 2.3%, set in September 2009.)

13 May 2022

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

NATO retaliation; Riksbank eyeing front-loading?

Even if reports that Russia is close to cutting off the supply of natural gas to Finland prove accurate, Finland seems well placed to replace Russian flows with LNG imports from elsewhere. So, while Finland’s economy will be hit harder than most other euro-zone economies from a broader loss of trade with Russia, the direct effect of a cessation in Russian gas supplies in retaliation for its NATO application would be small.

13 May 2022

More from David Oxley

Global Economics Focus

The CBDCs are coming

We expect some major central banks to issue digital currencies later this decade, with those in countries where cash is rarest proceeding the fastest. The first generation of central bank digital currencies will be purposely designed not to shake up the status quo. But once established they would offer powerful new policy tools. It would be naïve to think that sooner or later central banks won’t consider using them.

6 July 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear)

The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass muster in the Riksdag and so there is a good chance that Mr Löfven will return in the same role before long. Next week, we expect monthly GDP data from Norway to show that mainland activity gathered pace in May, and that core inflation remained below the Norges Bank’s target in June.

2 July 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Balance sheet reduction to precede hikes in Sweden

The Riksbank was always likely to maintain the status quo this morning, but against the backdrop of recent hawkish shifts by other central banks, notably the Fed, the focus was on how its thinking had shifted. The short answer is: not a lot.

1 July 2021
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