On the back of a brighter outlook for the US economy and concerns over supply, we have nudged up our forecast for Brent crude prices to end the year at $95 per barrel ($85pb previously). Although this means that the oil-rich countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could see larger trade and fiscal surpluses than we had previously anticipated, the impact on the GCC’s economic growth in 2012 is likely to be small.
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