My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Lebanon crisis, Moroccan growth, UAE insolvency law

Lebanon’s government should meet an FX debt repayment next week, but this will further drain the country’s FX reserves and pile further pressure on the dollar peg. Elsewhere, Morocco’s king appointed a new “growth czar” this week and reports that European and Japanese carmakers are eyeing investments in the country support our optimistic view on the economy’s long-run prospects. Finally, the passing of an insolvency law in the UAE adds to the evidence that the authorities are trying to fend off growing competition from the Gulf and ensure that the country remains an attractive destination for expatriate workers and international business.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
Continue reading

More from Middle East

Middle East Economics Weekly

World Bank food loans, OPEC, SAMA liquidity injection

Egypt and Tunisia received loans from the World Bank this week to help them face rising global food prices, but the loans will not cover all of the increase in imports and alleviate strains in balance sheets. Elsewhere, despite no decision being made at today’s meeting, OPEC+ could remove quotas from September. That would provide a major fillip to GDP growth in the Gulf economies over the next few years. And finally, the Saudi central bank injected funds into the local banking sector to ease liquidity concerns but more may be required in order to support strong credit growth.
EM Drop-In (Thurs, 7th July): Join our economists for their regular monthly briefing on the hot stories in EMs – and those that aren’t getting the attention they deserve. In this 20-minute session, topics will include the outlook for EM FX markets after the recent sell-offs. Register now.

30 June 2022

Middle East Economics Update

SAMA likely has more to do to ease liquidity concerns

Reports that the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) has injected liquidity into the banking sector appears to be a consequence of a lack of FX intervention (despite high oil prices), tight fiscal policy and strong credit growth. SAMA appears keen to sustain robust lending growth, but that will probably require it to maintain its focus on providing liquidity to banks, rather than draining it, over the coming months. EM Drop-In (Thurs, 7th July): Join our economists for their regular monthly briefing on the hot stories in EMs – and those that aren’t getting the attention they deserve. In this 20-minute session, topics will include the outlook for EM FX markets after the recent sell-offs. Register now.

30 June 2022

Middle East Economics Update

Gulf a bright spot

We think that rising oil production and high global energy prices will result in rapid GDP growth this year and next across the Gulf economies. Growth is likely to be well above consensus expectations.

28 June 2022

More from Jason Tuvey

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Lira touches new low, CEE bond yield divergence

It's been a rocky week for the Turkish lira amid more changes at the central bank and political upheaval regarding a possible link between politicians and organised crime. This, coming alongside high inflation, has reduced the chances of an interest rate cut at the next meeting in June. Meanwhile, local currency bond yields have diverged in Central Europe recently, but we don't think this will continue and see scope for further rises in yields over the coming years, particularly in Czechia.

28 May 2021

Africa Economics Update

Nigeria’s recovery to remain stuck in first gear

The pick-up in Nigeria’s GDP growth in Q1 was driven in large part by the oil sector and rising oil output will support a further acceleration in growth over the coming quarters. But FX restrictions, limited fiscal support and a very slow vaccine rollout mean that the recovery is likely to remain stuck in the slow lane.

24 May 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.)

The jump in South Africa’s headline inflation in April, to 4.4% y/y, was driven by energy price effects but there were signs that broader price pressures are starting to build. But even so, we think that the Reserve Bank will keep rates on hold for longer than investors currently expect in order to support the economy.

19 May 2021
↑ Back to top