OPEC+ left the door open last week to change its oil output policy before the next meeting and, if output is raised more slowly or not at all, this would knock GDP growth back mechanically in the Gulf – plausibly by around 0.5%-pts next year. At the same time, if oil prices drop further than we expect, Oman and Bahrain will have to tighten fiscal policy even further and probably rely on further financial assistance from other Gulf countries.
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