The jump in oil prices over the past month has sharpened the divide between the relatively bright outlook for the Middle East’s resource-rich countries, and the less rosy outlook for its resource-poor countries. In the GCC, the rise in oil export revenues will bolster government receipts, ensuring that another round of fiscal stimulus over the course of this year is easy to fund. By contrast, the rise in global oil prices could not have come at a worse time for the region’s resource poor countries. Faced with yet another rise in subsidy costs, the fiscal positions of Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Lebanon and Jordan – all of which were already precarious – are set to get even worse.
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