History suggests that for an IMF deal to restore market confidence, a credible shift towards policy tightening which delivers positive economic results, alongside favourable external conditions, is needed. While there are currently tentative steps towards policy reforms in Argentina and external tailwinds are present, we think that the economic backdrop will remain challenging even with the IMF on board. That suggests there is a high bar for a sustained rally in Argentina’s sovereign dollar bonds.
Commodities Drop-In (24 March, 11:00 EDT/15:00 GMT): Our Commodities team will be exploring how the war in Ukraine is shaking up commodity markets, from oil to wheat, while tackling some of the big market questions – not least whether we’re in for 1970s-style oil supply shocks. Register here.
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