Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.)

The stagnation in Brazilian industrial production in June suggests that industry made a negative contribution to q/q GDP growth over Q2 as a whole. But with virus cases having fallen sharply, it looks like the prospects for industry – and the economy more generally – are brightening.
William Jackson Chief Emerging Markets Economist
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Latin America Data Response

Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The further rise in Chile’s inflation to 6.7% y/y – the highest rate since late 2008 – will keep pressure on the central bank to deliver further aggressive monetary tightening. We expect another 125bp policy rate hike, to 4.00%, at its meeting next week.

7 December 2021

Latin America Economics Weekly

Central banks and Omicron, Colombia CA risks

The emergence of the Omicron variant presents a key risk to economic recoveries in the region, although the experience from the latest virus wave in the region provides a reason to think it will not result in a permanent hit to output. In the meantime, central banks across the region will remain focussed on tackling high inflation with further rate hikes. Otherwise, data this week showed that Colombia's current account deficit widened even further in Q3 and the recent drop in oil prices will add to the growing external vulnerabilities there.

3 December 2021

Latin America Data Response

Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.)

The surprise 0.6% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in October and weakness in the surveys for last month provide early evidence that the contraction in the economy last quarter may be followed by another q/q drop in GDP in Q4.

3 December 2021

More from William Jackson

Latin America Data Response

Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.)

The re-opening of Mexico’s economy caused GDP growth to accelerate to 1.5% q/q in Q2, and we suspect that this preliminary figure will be revised up. But with new virus cases rising sharply, the economy is likely to slow in Q3.

30 July 2021

Africa Chart Book

Delta threat building

The highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 seems to be dominant now across much of Sub-Saharan Africa and is driving new waves in many of the large economies. South Africa appears to be over the worst of its latest outbreak, although it now has to contend with the legacy of violence and unrest earlier this month. Elsewhere, cases are rising quickly and could dampen recoveries. Extremely low vaccine coverage makes the region particularly vulnerable to this variant and potential future ones. Even in South Africa, where the rollout is quick by regional standards, at the current pace it would take a year for vaccine coverage to reach the levels offering protection against new variants seen in DMs.

29 July 2021

Middle East Chart Book

OPEC+ agreement provides a boost to Gulf recoveries

The end of the impasse within OPEC+ this month will result in higher oil output and boost recoveries in the Gulf over the second half of this year and in 2022. Output quotas will rise by 400,000bpd each month after the UAE backed down in return for having its baseline production raised from next year. More supply on the market is likely to weigh on oil prices, but we think that the impact on Gulf oil export revenues will be more than offset by rising production volumes. As a result, budget and account positions in the Gulf will improve, providing policymakers with a small window to loosen fiscal policy and support recoveries in the region’s non-oil sectors.

28 July 2021
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