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Olympic cancellation wouldn’t be an economic shock

With the number of confirmed infections of the new coronavirus rising in Japan, cancellation or postponement of this year’s Tokyo Olympics is becoming a possibility worth considering. The key point in terms of the economic impact of such a move is that most of the spending for the Olympics has already happened. Spending during the Games themselves is small, perhaps just 0.2% of GDP, and much of this is diverted from spending in other areas of tourism and recreation.
Marcel Thieliant Senior Japan, Australia & New Zealand Economist
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More from Japan

Japan Data Response

Japan Industrial Production (May 2022)

The plunge in industrial output in May suggests that Japan’s recovery is disappointing yet again. The upshot is that it will take until the second half of the year for GDP to surpass its pre-virus level. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

30 June 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Retail Sales (May 2022)

The disappointing rise in retail sales in May poses downside risks to our upbeat forecasts for consumption growth in Q2. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

29 June 2022

Japan Economics Weekly

Respite for BoJ doesn’t weaken case for a policy tweak

Pressure on the Bank of Japan’s Yield Curve Control framework eased this week. On the campaign trail for the Upper House election, where inflation has emerged as a key concern, Prime Minister Kishida said that monetary tightening would do more harm than good. Even more welcome for the BoJ, pressure emanating from the bond market has dropped back too. It had to buy less than a tenth as many JGBs this week as last. Some might feel that this reduces the need to shore up the policy framework. But a respite provides a window in which to make it more resilient.
Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

24 June 2022

More from Marcel Thieliant

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

The impact of the pandemic on inflation

We expect inflation to rise to the mid-point of the RBA’s target band over the next couple of years. The main driver is a continued tightening of the labour market and a pick-up in wage growth. By contrast, we think that the goods supply shortages resulting from the pandemic will subside before long and will be more than offset by a plunge in import prices due to the stronger exchange rate.

2 June 2021

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia GDP (Q1 2021)

Australia's GDP surpassed its pre-virus level in Q1 but with the vaccination rollout still slow and a fresh lockdown in Melbourne, the recovery is set to slow.

2 June 2021

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will expand QE by another $100bn next month

The Reserve Bank of Australia still sounded dovish when it kept policy settings unchanged today. We think it will expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn next month.

1 June 2021
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