My subscription
My Subscription All Publications

The CBDCs are coming

We expect some major central banks to issue digital currencies later this decade, with those in countries where cash is rarest proceeding the fastest. The first generation of central bank digital currencies will be purposely designed not to shake up the status quo. But once established they would offer powerful new policy tools. It would be naïve to think that sooner or later central banks won’t consider using them.
David Oxley Senior Europe Economist
Continue reading

More from Global Economics

Global Economics Update

Equity price falls add to headwinds to growth

Recent falls in equity prices have not prompted downgrades to our global growth forecasts since the passthrough to the real economy is limited and part of the bad news has already been factored in to consumer confidence. But the correction will contribute to a tightening of financial conditions which is another reason to believe that growth in major economies will be weaker than consensus forecasts imply.

25 May 2022

Global Economics Update

PMIs: Orders slowing and price pressures still acute

The flash PMIs for May suggest that activity slowed in most DMs compared to April, and weaker growth in new orders points to a further slowdown to come. There were some positive developments on the supply front, given further evidence that shortages eased somewhat. However, firms’ costs rose at their fastest rate on record, suggesting that price pressures will continue to weigh on economic activity.

24 May 2022

Global Economics Update

Can we trust the PMIs after their undue optimism in Q1?

The PMI surveys gave an overly optimistic steer of GDP growth in advanced economies in Q1. This partly reflected volatility in imports and inventories and the effects of COVID restrictions, all of which should fade from now on allowing the PMIs to give a more accurate steer. But since the headline PMIs do not cover the retail sector, they might continue to overstate actual GDP growth to some extent.

23 May 2022

More from David Oxley

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway GDP (May) & Sweden GDP Indicator (May)

The larger-than-expected rise in mainland Norwegian GDP in May indicates that the economy is back in business following the lifting of restrictions, and it is likely to have regained its pre-virus level in June.

7 July 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear)

The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass muster in the Riksdag and so there is a good chance that Mr Löfven will return in the same role before long. Next week, we expect monthly GDP data from Norway to show that mainland activity gathered pace in May, and that core inflation remained below the Norges Bank’s target in June.

2 July 2021

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Balance sheet reduction to precede hikes in Sweden

The Riksbank was always likely to maintain the status quo this morning, but against the backdrop of recent hawkish shifts by other central banks, notably the Fed, the focus was on how its thinking had shifted. The short answer is: not a lot.

1 July 2021
↑ Back to top