We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all these currencies to lose ground against the US dollar this year, although we think that a more hawkish Riksbank and Bank of England will mean that SEK and GBP hold up best, while our forecast of falling energy prices, especially that of European natural gas, suggests to us that NOK will do worst.
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