FX Markets Update Your questions on Japan’s markets answered The yen had weakened to a 40-year low against the dollar before FX intervention prompted a rebound last week, while the 10-year JGB yield is close to multi-year highs. This Update answers key client... 6th August 2026 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update 2024-style carry trade unwind still appears unlikely While carry trade positioning appears to have increased over the past couple of years, we doubt the recent yen intervention alone will trigger a carry trade unwind and a rapid yen appreciation along... 5th August 2026 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Sixth(!) time the charm for the yen? Intervention in support of the yen may not work any better now than it has previously, but the persistence of the Japanese authorities suggests to us that the yen will remain around the 160 level this... 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am FX outperformance unlikely to last Currencies in Latin American have fared better than those of other EMs over July, but we expect that outperformance to reverse, with currencies depreciating against the dollar over the next 12-18... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update The renminbi could not rebalance China on its own A significant appreciation of the renminbi would narrow China’s enormous trade surplus but it would also make the domestic deflation problem worse. This trade-off can only be addressed if a stronger... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Equities Update Foreigners’ voracious appetite for US equities is another red flag A surge in foreign buying of US equities could be another sign of trouble ahead for the S&P 500. After all, smaller surges also took place before the dotcom bubble burst; the GFC; and 2022’s drawdown... 22nd July 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Despite near-term headwinds, we are upbeat on the rupee The rupee has been one of the worst performing emerging market currencies over the past year. But it now looks undervalued, and we think that a hawkish RBI combined with falling energy and gold prices... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Can anything reverse the yen’s fortunes? While the weakness of the yen remains a puzzle, we still expect the currency to rebound by the end of next year. Our end-2027 forecast for USD/JPY is 150, which compares to a current rate of ~162. 15th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro to weaken further against the US dollar Moves in relative interest rates have contributed to the euro weakening against the US dollar since early May. We think that it will fall to around $1.10 by the end of the year as the Fed hikes twice... 30th June 2026 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Risks of a sudden carry trade unwind are building While the Iran war does not appear to have pulled the plug on the carry trade yet, the risk of a sudden unwind may continue to build for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But even if it... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What lies in store for Colombia’s markets post-election? Colombian assets would rally in the event of a victory for a right-wing candidate in the presidential election. Local currency bond yields appear to have the greatest scope to stage a post-election... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Rate hike would provide only brief respite for rupiah The Indonesian rupiah has continued to slide over the past week and, while we think intervention in the foreign exchange market will remain Bank Indonesia’s primary course of action to prop up the... 18th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The case for further shekel strength The Israeli shekel has been one of the world’s best-performing currencies this year, hitting a 33-year high against the dollar. Further gains are possible provided geopolitical risks remain contained... 14th May 2026 · 4 mins read
