German GDP Q4 2019 (Second Estimate)

After flat-lining in Q4 last year, we suspect that the German economy will not grow in the first half of this year either, even if the effects of the coronavirus are contained.
Andrew Kenningham Chief Europe Economist
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European Data Response

EZ Unemployment (Oct.)

While labour market conditions continued to improve in October, the recent deterioration of the Covid situation and increased uncertainty due to the Omicron variant are likely to mean the recovery takes a breather over the next couple of months, just as it did when restrictions were in place at the start of 2021.

2 December 2021

European Economics Update

Macron on course to defeat far-right challengers

The confirmation earlier today that far-right pundit Eric Zemmour will stand in France’s presidential election next spring comes as no surprise given his rise in the polls. But French President Emmanuel Macron still looks on course to win a second term, defeating the far-right candidates and keeping France on a pro-European, reformist track. In this Update, we answer five key questions about the election.

30 November 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone Flash HICP (Nov.)

November’s inflation data were yet another surprise on the upside. The Omicron variant has increased the level of uncertainty even further but for now we suspect that it will have a fairly small impact on inflation. Still, headline inflation looks set to remain above target until at least the end of next year.

30 November 2021

More from Andrew Kenningham

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

No inflation scare in Scandinavia or Switzerland…

If there is a global inflation scare, the Scandinavians are yet to get the memo. In a week when we learnt that core inflation hit a 28-year high in the US in May, we also learnt that the core inflation rate fell to very low levels in both Norway and Sweden. Nonetheless, with the Norges Bank is likely to be the first major advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates we will be hosting a twenty-minute “drop in” on the outlook for Norway after next Thursday’s Norges Bank meeting – you can register for it here.

11 June 2021

European Economics Update

Not tapering yet, despite chunky forecast upgrades

Having left the pace of its PEPP purchases unchanged and made big upgrades to its GDP forecasts, we think the ECB will start to taper the PEPP later this year. But we think it will eventually make an offsetting increase to other asset purchases and will leave its deposit rate unchanged for longer than most anticipate.

10 June 2021

Nordic & Swiss Chart Book

Falling inflation won’t stop Norges Bank rate hikes

Rising global price pressures have pushed inflation up in Switzerland and Sweden this year, but their central banks look set to leave policy on hold. In contrast, inflation in Norway has been falling recently and yet its central bank is likely to start tightening in September.

9 June 2021
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