EC Survey (July)

Economic sentiment in the euro-zone continued to improve in July as restrictions were lifted further. The EC Survey also showed that persistent input shortages are causing price pressures to grow across all sectors. That said, we expect inflation to fall back sharply once these shortages dissipate.
Michael Tran Assistant Economist
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European Economics Update

Omicron: implications for the euro-zone

It is still very early days in assessing the effects of the latest Covid variant, but we suspect that Omicron has the capacity to cause a new decline in economic activity in the coming months but that it will probably have a relatively small impact on inflation. Meanwhile, the variant means the ECB is even more likely to maintain some flexibility around its asset purchases beyond next March.

29 November 2021

European Data Response

Germany Flash Inflation (Nov.)

The increase in German inflation to 6% on the HICP measure was partly due to statistical quirks which should be reversed next month. But even the national CPI measure of inflation rose to 5.2%. However it is measured, inflation has now probably peaked and should fall back a long way next year.

29 November 2021

European Data Response

EC Survey (November)

Despite the slight deterioration on the month, November’s EC business and consumer survey showed that economic sentiment in the euro-zone was high before the recent news about the Omicron variant. It also confirmed that consumers’ and firms’ inflation expectations were extremely strong.

29 November 2021
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