Office development tax hike adds downside risk to Paris rental outlook

This year’s changes to property taxation in Ile de France could result in a larger proportion of the potential office development pipeline being delivered to the market than otherwise might be expected. If this coincides with a sharp slowdown in occupier demand, as we expect, then the Paris office market will face a period of oversupply in 2013 and 2014. Consistent with that, we envisage that prime office rents in Paris will fall by 10% to 12% between now and the end of 2014.