Much of Latin America, South Africa, and parts of Asia – notably India and the Philippines – are still struggling to contain their first waves of coronavirus. And while policymakers in these countries have generally eased lockdowns over the past few months, our Mobility Trackers suggest that recoveries appear to be losing some momentum. (See Chart 1.) To compound matters, there are now growing fears of second waves in the likes of China, Vietnam and Hong Kong. The number of new cases is still very small in China and policymakers have proven adept at quashing localised outbreaks. But the outbreak in Hong Kong is more severe and will hit its recovery, and a continued rise in cases in Vietnam is a key risk to our above-consensus growth forecast.
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