No sign of improvement

Economic growth in Emerging Asia is showing no sign of improvement. Our GDP tracker is pointing to growth of around 4.5% in the third quarter, which is roughly unchanged from the previous quarter and around two percentage points slower than in the period before the global financial crisis. Much of the weakness is cyclical – exports have been near enough stagnant since 2012, leaving some of the region’s most trade-dependent economies short on sources of demand growth. But there are also structural factors at play, most notably in India, where investment is being held back by bureaucratic obstacles.