Hong Kong GDP (Q1 Preliminary)

Hong Kong’s economy contracted by the most on record last quarter as tourism collapsed, trade flows slowed sharply and social distancing weighed on domestic spending.
Julian Evans-Pritchard Senior China Economist
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China Economics Weekly

Inflation unlikely to rise any further this year

While the prospect of rising inflation is a key global concern, in China disinflationary pressures have been building and we are revising down our forecast for consumer price inflation over the second half of this year. China isn’t bucking the global trend entirely – core inflation will probably climb further, albeit not particularly rapidly. But pork price inflation is plummeting and that will cap the headline rate.

18 June 2021

China Data Response

China Activity & Spending (May)

Headline growth on all the key indicators dropped back last month. But after adjusting for base effects the picture was more mixed, with investment slowing, industrial output growth holding steady and retail sales accelerating. While there is still scope for a further recovery in consumption, we think investment and exports are set to cool over the coming months.

16 June 2021

China Economics Weekly

US-China rivalry: industrial policy, vaccine diplomacy

The US Senate took a leaf out of China’s industrial policy playbook this week by passing USICA, a bill that earmarks $190bn in federal funding for strategic sectors and bears striking similarities with Beijing’s controversial Made in China 2025 plan. But despite some overlap, China’s industrial policies clearly remain far broader in scope and run a much greater risk of hindering rather than helping productivity growth. Another burgeoning area of US-China competition is vaccine diplomacy. Here China has the clear lead, at least in terms of the quantity of vaccine exports. And the ongoing surge in domestic production and vaccination rates means that China could soon flood the world with doses on a far larger scale than other countries, including the US.

11 June 2021

More from Julian Evans-Pritchard

China Data Response

China Activity & Spending (May)

Headline growth on all the key indicators dropped back last month. But after adjusting for base effects the picture was more mixed, with investment slowing, industrial output growth holding steady and retail sales accelerating. While there is still scope for a further recovery in consumption, we think investment and exports are set to cool over the coming months.

16 June 2021

China Economics Weekly

US-China rivalry: industrial policy, vaccine diplomacy

The US Senate took a leaf out of China’s industrial policy playbook this week by passing USICA, a bill that earmarks $190bn in federal funding for strategic sectors and bears striking similarities with Beijing’s controversial Made in China 2025 plan. But despite some overlap, China’s industrial policies clearly remain far broader in scope and run a much greater risk of hindering rather than helping productivity growth. Another burgeoning area of US-China competition is vaccine diplomacy. Here China has the clear lead, at least in terms of the quantity of vaccine exports. And the ongoing surge in domestic production and vaccination rates means that China could soon flood the world with doses on a far larger scale than other countries, including the US.

11 June 2021

China Data Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May)

Broad credit growth continued to slide in May and is now at its slowest since February last year. Evidence of policy tightening weighing on borrowing is clearest in bank loan growth which, apart from during last year’s lockdown, is at its weakest in nearly two decades. This will become a headwind to the economy in the second half of the year.

10 June 2021
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