Emerging virus waves clouding recoveries beyond SA

Much attention has been devoted to the Omicron-fuelled fourth COVID-19 wave ripping through South Africa but cases have picked up elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa as well, with especially sharp rises in Nigeria and Namibia. There are early signs of virus waves taking hold in Kenya and Ghana too. But so far African policymakers are following their peers in South Africa with a “wait and see” approach before tightening economically-damaging restrictions on activity. Were healthcare systems to come under strain, governments’ hands may be forced and past form suggests that stringent containment measures pose the biggest risk to economic recoveries in Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Meanwhile, tourism-dependent economies will probably suffer either way. Even if travel restrictions are rowed back, any green shoots in tourism sectors are likely to wither amid virus concerns. Note: Central Bank Drop-In – The Fed, ECB and BoE are just some of the key central bank decisions expected in this packed week of meetings. Neil Shearing and a special panel of our chief economists will sift through the outcomes on Thursday, 16th December at 11:00 ET/16:00 GMT and discuss the monetary policy outlook for 2022.