Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update 2024 rate cuts will provide no respite to price corrections Even though we expect the Fed to go into cutting mode within the next six months and the 10-year Treasury yield to fall below 4% in 2024, we don’t expect this to provide any respite for real estate... 29th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher r* means more pain for property Our recent r* work reinforces the view that property yields will stay relatively high longer term. That implies global returns in low single digits over the next decade or so, well below pre-pandemic... 27th November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Where are prospects best for data centers? Since early 2020 there has been a clear divergence in performance between data centers and the traditional commercial real estate sectors. Looking forward, we expect the hyperscale sub-sector will... 20th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Another downgrade to the consensus, but still too sanguine Our forecasts for commercial real estate values remain well below consensus, even after the latest downgrade. While our sector rankings are consistent with the consensus, we are predicting a more... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update 2024-27 completions to be below pre-pandemic levels With vacancy set to stay elevated, development finance remaining expensive, and values to continue falling next year, we expect construction starts will be weak in all sectors over the next 12 months... 10th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update WeWork collapse adds to office concerns The bankruptcy of WeWork in the US was a predictable end to a long-running saga. Its effects on office markets will not be systemic, but they will reinforce existing weaknesses and pile more bad news... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Higher for longer to push all-property cap rates above 5% On the back of upward adjustments to our 10-Year Treasury yield forecasts, we now expect to see a larger increase in cap rates. This will see office cap rates rise to over 6.5% by end-2024, pushing... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) The Q3 RICS survey indicated occupier and investment sentiment fell further in Q3, with the latter reflected in weak investment volumes throughout the summer months. But tight credit conditions and a... 26th October 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2023) The -1.4% quarterly return in Q3 meant that there have now been four consecutive negative quarters for all-property total returns. That figure was dragged down by a 5% q/q fall in office values as all... 26th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update AI set to transform the real estate landscape The diffusion of AI technologies should be a fillip for the global economy over the coming years. That will bring benefits for real estate performance in developed economies, particularly in those... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Flexible offices unlikely to capitalise on hybrid working IWG’s record revenues in the first half of this year may suggest that flexible offices are the answer for many firms as hybrid working cements itself as the ‘new normal’. However, we don’t think... 4th October 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update No support from job growth for Chicago and NYC offices Office-based jobs are on course to underperform total jobs this year for the first time since 2009 and there is a growing risk this could be repeated in 2024, though that is not yet our central... 3rd October 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment and single-family REIT divergence to persist The recent outperformance of single-family REITs versus apartment REITs appears to be down to differences in the capital value outlook for the sectors, rather than any major difference in rental... 15th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Uncovering the factors impacting downtown recoveries Data on cell phone usage suggest that cities with a high share of professional, scientific and technical occupations and long commute times are typically associated with poorer downtown recoveries... 12th September 2023 · 3 mins read
