US Commercial Property Update Uncovering the factors impacting downtown recoveries Data on cell phone usage suggest that cities with a high share of professional, scientific and technical occupations and long commute times are typically associated with poorer downtown recoveries... 12th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Denver’s poor jobs performance should be short-lived Denver’s poor jobs market performance over the last year appears to have been driven by a combination of a downsizing in Central Bank staff and layoffs in its large telecoms sector. But the former’s... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment completions likely to stay strong until 2025 We continue to expect historic highs for apartment completions in 2023-24 even though there are signs some will be deferred. This also means that, although new permits have dropped back amid softer... 18th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How remote work could impact US city revenues On the back of the remote work revolution, US downtowns have seen reduced office-led footfall and rising crime rates. Cities will need to be proactive to drive conversion to alternative use and to... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Is there real evidence of an office 'flight to quality'? The data show a small, but limited, divergence in performance between overall class A and classes B and C office space. But that differential appears to have been driven by newly-built " trophy" space... 9th August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we still expect 15% falls in industrial and apartment values Despite capital value falls of 7% and 9% to-date for industrial and apartments respectively, we are forecasting around 15% further value declines as cap rates rise. But the falls in appraisal-based... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q2) The latest RICS survey signalled a slight improvement in occupier and investment sentiment in Q2, but confidence remained low by historic standards. Tight credit conditions and a poor economic... 27th July 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Property Index (Q2 2023) Total returns were negative again in Q2 at -2.0% q/q. This was dragged down by the office sector, where values fell by 7% and quarterly returns were -5.8%, with all other sectors outperforming the all... 26th July 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Uneasy outlook for global commercial property We have made only minor changes to our latest global forecasts which still imply that property will underperform other assets in the short to medium term. Further out, real estate returns are set to... 19th July 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Trip Notes – NY and Chicago client Q&A Here are answers to some of the key questions that kept coming up during meetings with clients last week in New York and Chicago, and around my presentation to the NCREIF summer conference in Chicago. 18th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Key questions from our Climate Drop-In We recently held a Drop-in titled “Industry’s decarbonisation challenge – From aviation to property”, which you can view on-demand here. This Update addresses some of the questions we received during... 3rd July 2023 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office values unlikely to regain their peaks even by 2040 The reduction in office demand due to remote work will cause a hit to net operating incomes on a par with, or worse than, that experienced by malls over the last six years. And in line with the... 22nd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will there be a reckoning for European offices? The latest MSCI data indicate that values in western European office markets have held up better since the start of the pandemic when compared with the US and UK. But given these cities face similar... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Ranking metros by physical climate risks to real estate Florida and other parts of the Sunbelt (notably major cities in Texas) will likely face the most severe physical climate risk over the next 30 years. While this is unlikely to come as a major surprise... 14th June 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Top-ranked warehouse markets dominated by Sunbelt Our updated industrial metros analysis, which now incorporates the current vacancy rate, continues to point to Memphis as having the strongest prospects for rent growth over a three-year horizon... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will less generous online returns help retail property? Recent economic difficulties have forced online retail to tighten their returns policies. At face value, this seems good news for retail property as it may shift demand back to stores for certain... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read