Despite some softness in recent months, we expect a continuation of the AI capex boom and a broadening of investment to drive above-consensus GDP growth, which should rise to 2.6% next year. That should, in turn, help to drive the unemployment rate below 4% next year. While core inflation should ease over the rest of the year, the risks lie toward it settling closer to 2.5% than 2% in 2027, leading us to think that the Fed will enact two 25bp insurance hikes around the turn of the year