Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong end to 2017 (for most) Growth in Emerging Europe as a whole slowed in Q4, having hit a six-year high in Q3. But most of that slowdown came in the region’s largest economy, Russia, whose recovery stuttered. Weakness there... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) December’s figures brought yet more good news on the current health of the public finances. And we think that stronger GDP growth will result in a more rapid improvement further ahead. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jan.) January’s increase in the ZEW measure of investor sentiment confirms that investors are upbeat about Germany’s economic prospects despite the recent rise in the euro. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Some positive news in late 2017 Most of the data released over the past month suggested that African economies strengthened in late 2017. Q3 GDP figures showed faster growth in Ghana, Zambia, Botswana, and Rwanda – with growth in... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending suffers as inflation peaks December’s retail sales figures were pretty disappointing, suggesting that the sector grew by 0.4% in Q4 as a whole, half of Q3’s 0.8% rate. What’s more, growth in non-retail spending is likely to... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) The Philippines’ economy cooled off a bit in Q4, with growth easing to 6.6% y/y. We expect the economy will slow further this year, weighed upon by moderating export growth and sluggish investment. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Nov.) The further rise in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in November suggests that the economy regained some momentum at the end of last year. That said, the plunge in business confidence in November... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF forecasts too optimistic (as usual) We broadly agree with the forecasts for global growth in 2018 which the IMF published today. But we think it is being over-optimistic about both global and US economic growth next year. 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s recovery to strengthen in 2018 We expect economic growth in Colombia to accelerate over the course of 2018. Inflation should fall sharply from the start of this year and interest rates are likely to be cut further. We do not... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF forecasts too optimistic (as usual) We broadly agree with the forecasts for global growth in 2018 which the IMF published today. But we think it is being over-optimistic about both global and US economic growth next year. 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Exchange rates to diverge as Swedish krona rises Prospects for the Nordic economies and Switzerland are strong, but there are divergent outlooks for monetary policy. In Sweden, inflation is already close to the Riksbank’s target and, with capacity... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is the Philippines overheating? Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring the... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes likely to be undone before long The Bank of Canada’s upgraded GDP growth forecast for this year looks overly optimistic given NAFTA and housing-related risks. Despite further increases in household borrowing costs and tougher new... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets off to a flyer, despite softer economic data EM financial markets have made a flying start to 2018, with most equity markets up by 4-6% since the start of the year and most currencies up by 2-3% against the US dollar. However, the incoming... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How ambitious is the grand coalition’s plan for Germany? The fiscal proposals agreed by Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz as part of their plan to renew Germany’s grand coalition amount to a headline-grabbing 1.5% of annual German GDP and include abolishing... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update GDP targets here to stay Official talk about prioritising the “quality” of economic growth over speed has sparked speculation that the government may stop setting GDP targets. Unfortunately we think they are here to stay. 22nd November 2017 · 3 mins read
