Japan Data Response Labour Market & Consumer Spending (Dec.) While the jobless rate edged up in December, the continued rise in job vacancies suggest it will fall to fresh lows before long. Meanwhile, consumer spending should have rebounded last quarter even... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Life left in the region’s recovery While the rest of the global economy experienced a pick-up in growth towards the end of last year, our GDP Tracker suggests that regional growth in Latin America flat-lined at around 2.5% y/y in Q4 –... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit uncertainty finally bite in 2018? A key reason why most forecasters were too gloomy about the UK economy last year was that Brexit-related uncertainty was much less damaging than they had expected. Judging by the gloominess of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Getting back into gear We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by faster growth in South Africa and Nigeria, the region’s two biggest... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What do high oil prices mean for Asia? The recent jump in oil prices does not alter the outlook for Asia’s economies. But if prices were to rise significantly further, we would be most concerned about the impact on India and Sri Lanka. 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook No rush to raise rates 2018 will be the first year this century that the Australian economy won’t benefit from either a mining or housing boom. In those circumstances, we doubt that GDP growth will rise above 2.5%. And... 28th January 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Oil exporters take mixed approach to higher oil prices The recent rally in oil prices has brightened the outlook for the majority of frontier oil exporters. In the Gulf, for example, higher oil prices and strong balance sheets have enabled the authorities... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are we underestimating the impact of the tax cuts? The surge in the stock market and wave of firms announcing wage increases and bonuses since the Tax Cut and Jobs Act passed have fuelled optimism that tax cuts are reviving “animal spirits” and... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) The gradual strengthening in core inflation evident in December’s consumer price figures would seem to justify the Bank of Canada’s recent decision to raise interest rates again. 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary Estimate of GDP (Q4) The preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP revealed that the economy picked up pace in the final three months of 2017, rounding off a solid, albeit unspectacular year. This supports our view that the... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Cycle to turn in 2018 Most economies in Emerging Europe had a very strong end to 2017, but we expect regional growth to soften in the coming quarters. The economic cycle in Central Europe is now looking mature and growth... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would Japan benefit from higher interest rates? Some commentators have been arguing that the Bank of Japan should be raising interest rates now to support household incomes. However, it isn’t clear whether this would boost household spending, while... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will Thailand do about the “strong” baht? The Thai authorities are becoming increasingly concerned by the strength of the baht, which has been one of the best performing emerging market currencies over the past year. The most likely policy... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA shift puts Argentine peso under pressure It’s been a good start to 2018 for Latin America’s financial markets, with equities outperforming those in developed markets, currencies posting strong gains against the dollar, and bond spreads... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth stabilises at the end of 2017 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic conditions stabilised at the end of last year after a fairly sharp slowdown since the middle of 2017. Growth may pick up slightly in the near term... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
